Friday, September 26, 2008

An opinion poll from pollster Dr.S.Rajanayagam

AIADMK is much ahead of the DMK in popularity ratings, says an opinion poll conducted by the People Studies wing of the Loyola College.
While the AIADMK enjoys 38.3 per cent popular support, the DMK’s support has diminished to 25.8 per cent and the DMDK has increased it support to 19.5 per cent.
The poll conducted across the state from September 15 to 22 has a sample size of 2,709 (Urban: 40 per cent/Rural: 60 per cent).
“If a scenario emerges in which the AIADMK-PMK-MDMK-BJP combine faces the Lok Sabha elections, they have bright chances of a sweep. However, a four-cornered contest may go in favour of the DMK-Congress-VCK combine in the present situation,” Dr.S.Rajanayagam, Head of People Studies, told this journalist.
“If AIADMK and DMDK come together to face the elections, there will be a massive impact. Though the DMDK has eaten into the vote bank of the AIADMK in rural areas, the women voters remain loyal to the AIADMK,” he said.
The Re.1 PDS rice scheme introduced by the DMK government has really not help improve the DMK’s popularity as 52.7 per cent people said the scheme was of no use if the prices of other goods were still high. While 73.9 per cent welcomed the sops and welfare schemes of the DMK government, a whopping 72.5 percentage of they have not reached the people.
Among those surveyed, 55.5 per cent blamed the DMK government for the power crisis in the state while 56.1 per cent felt it had also failed to contain the price rise.
Even the performance of Central Ministers from the state has not invited a positive response from the public as only 39.4 per cent whom gave a thumbs up to Anbumani Ramadoss compared to the 39.7 per center cent who did not rate him high. Union finance minister P.Chidambaram has got 35.6 per cent plus and 54 per cent minus.
While 45.8 per cent of the sample said Rajinikanth should focus on full-time acting, 32.5 per cent said he should actually be retiring from films.
Mr Rajanayagam, a pollster known for predicting victory for the BJP in the recent Karnataka Assembly polls, conducted the opinion poll with a team of 27 people and used statistical process control (SPC) method to arrive at the conclusions.
While the DMDK chief Vijayakanth could make it to No.5 (10.7%) in the popularity chart for all-time favourite actors, actor Vijay (16.4%) ranked third next only to MGR (21.3%) and Sivaji Ganesan (18.9%). Rajinikanth stands fourth with 16.2 per cent. AIADMK chief Ms Jayalalithaa still ranks second in the list of all-time favourite female actors next only to Saroja Devi whereas Khushboo ranks fifth in the popularity listings.
Among the actor-politicians, Vijayakanth is way ahead of AISMK chief Sarath Kumar. While 43.4 per cent of the sample said Vijayakanth can create an impact, a mere 2.5 per cent said Sarath could make an impact on the state’s political landscape.
85.2 per cent of the people surveyed said power cut is the issue which requires an immediate attention from the DMK government. Apart from power cuts, price rise (opinion of 81.3 per cent) seems to be the factor which is creating an anti-incumbency wave.
While the present political climate works for Ms Jayalalithaa’s advantage, if she decides to go it alone, it will be a costly mistake, warned the pollster. While 40.5 per cent of the people surveyed said the AIADMK’s performance as the Opposition was good, 41 per cent felt it was average and 18.5 per cent said it was bad. AIADMK and the DMDK are the only parties who have got more support and less opposition according to the survey.

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